Yet another day means yet another batch of polls, and today brings potential movement in both the Senate and the House.
News:
Looks like yesterday’s shift of Missouri and Virginia into the tie zone has reversed, as both states now have weak democratic leads. This brings the projected senate to 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. Those numbers alone don’t mean much, what we really need to look at is the strength of each party’s states. For example, three states are barley democrat and four are weak whereas the republicans have no barley states and only two weak states.
The House remains destined for Democratic control, but one tie seat and one Democratic seat seem to have shifted to the Republicans. With the new polls, the House is projected to become a Democrat majority of 240-195 makeup.http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Views:
I really need to stop following these polls so closely, but I can’t seem to do so. I know that the polls and the actual election results will likely differ by multiple seats, but I find it kind of exciting - not unlike watching the results come in on election night. Regardless, only three days of polls remain.
The thing with sites like YouTube is that you never know if a clip is authentic. That said, I have been able to confirm that it was, in fact, a Santorum ad. http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/10/31/94601.shtml For your viewing pleasure:
As a responsible blogger, it is my duty to investigate the facts of what I post. As such, decided to look into the claims by The Center for Security Policy.
I didn’t find much of anything on their site, but NewsMax.com offers an explanation:
Santorum cited a 2004 report from the Center for Security Policy, a Washington think tank, which studied the Pennsylvania Public School Employees Retirement System, the Pennsylvania State Employees Retirement System, and pension funds around the country.http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/10/31/94601.shtml
Apparently Casey is (and was at the time) a board member and had some say in how the investments were made.
I’m not normally one to attack Republicans, but this ad really seems to take the claims made in the report a little too far and a our of context. Last time I checked, being a board member for a pension fund that works with companies that operate in nations that are linked to terrorism is in no way akin to investing in ‘organizations linked to terrorism’.
If I lived in Pennsylvania, I’d still vote for Santorum, although I wish politicians would not have to stoop so low in their attack ads.
Yes, I may be starting to get a little OCD on this, but the election is only four days away.
News:
While House numbers remain unchanged, today’s polls sent the Senate back into a deadlock with one likely Democratic seat returning to ‘tie’ status. The Senate now stands 49-49 with two tie seats.http://www.electoral-vote.com
Views:
As I mentioned before this is looking to be a very interesting election night and perhaps a very interesting session of Congress. Only time will tell.
Also, I remind each and every one of you that is eligible to vote (legal US citizens over the age of 18) to:
The week before an election is always a good time for political polls, and 2006 is proving to be no exception. A new day means new poll data to digest and comment on.
News:
Current polls are essentially dead-locked in the Senate, with the totals looking like 50-49 in favor of the Democrats, with one seat sitting out there in the wonderful ‘tie’ zone. This comes on the heels yesterday’s 51-49 prediction and may come as a slight relief to the Republicans.
The House, on the other hand, has shifted even further into likely Democratic control, with the total predicted to be 241-193 with a single tied seat. These numbers are a slight shift from yesterday’s 239-195 prediction.
Views:
To be quite honest, I’d love to see the Republicans maintain control, but I really don’t see that happening (at least in the House). Although I’d hate to see total Democratic control, I would not mind a split Congress. It is my belief that the partisan bickering and in-fighting could make for a interesting fun session and a treasure trove of blog fodder.
My first time? I’m ashamed to admit that I still haven’t gotten around to it. I’ve been dreaming about it for years, and I’m finally old enough. I guess I’ve just been busy recently.
I’ve thought about it, considered exactly how I want to do everything and I am truly looking forward to it. Heck, who cares if it’s supposed to be a private thing - I’ll even post pictures on this site.
This weekend, I’ll do it then. Or at least sometime before next Tuesday. And I’ll make sure its something I’ll never forget. I’ll make it the start of a beautiful tradition.
As I mentioned on Monday, electoral-vote.com is one of my favorite sites to visit in during election season, and this year has been no exception. A large round of new polls have come out, however, and I’m not exactly happy with the way things seem to be turning.
News:
On Monday, the prediction was 51 to 49 in the Senate with Republicans in the lead. Today, the polls seem to be showing a dead split, 50 to 50. I am fully aware that the margin of error alone can swing these numbers in either direction, as can any major developments over the coming days. I guess it would be best to simply keep our fingers crossed.
The House, however, is really looking very disappointing at the moment. On Monday, it was looking like the Democrats would win, but with a margin of only 225 to 208 and two ties. Yes, that is a lot, but small enough that margin of error might have been able to swing it. Today’s numbers still show the Democrats in the lead, but with 239 to 195 and one tie. While many of these are likely close, election night is looking more and more like a democratic victory.
Views:
Needless to say, I’m not exactly excited about the potential outcome. Although it would be nice to get some new faces in Congress, I’m not sure democrats are the way to go. I am positive that there are some strong Republican candidates out there, the problem is finding them and running them. Many of the current leaders in congress are too into appeasing Bush and big business, both of which seem obsessed with allowing illegal aliens to stay in this country. I don’t know about you, but I think that illegal immigration is going to be the hot button issue for this election.
Common Sense:
Depending on the outcome of this election, the Republicans may need to reconsider their strategy and tackle the issue of illegal immigration hands on and do it quite bluntly. I feel that a tough immigration reform bill would be able to keep Washington in Republican hands for a long time.
I’d like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a safe and happy Halloween. Whether you’re going out trick-or-treating, taking your kids around, doing to a party, or simply staying at home passing out candy, enjoy yourself and be safe.
There are plenty of sites out there with safety tips (try a Google Search), so I’ll just mention a few that stick out in my mind.
Safety Tips:
Be sure that all children are escorted by a trustworthy adult.
Be sure to bring flashlights and avoid excessively dark areas.
NEVER enter a house when trick-or-treating.
Do NOT allow children to consume candy without first inspecting it for tampering and potential allergy inducing foods (if your child has allergies).
Look both ways before crossing the street and make sure the driver sees you.
Be weary of masks - they may make it hard to see.
Avoid driving, but if you must, go slow when children are nearby and on residential streets.
Have fun and dress warm - make this a Halloween to remember!
And to close, I’d like to present an special Jack-o-Lantern. I made this one back in the 2004 election season and I thought the message still rings true. With the election in a mere six days, I remind you all to:
The GOPumpkin
Have a great Halloween,
-Andy
PS - I also encourage you to check out the Capitol Steps Halloween Special, playing in most areas tonight on your public radio station. You can also download it online. If you like political satire music, I highly suggest you check out the Capitol Steps.
When it comes to political polls, even staying on top of which company is conducting in which state is hard enough, let alone keeping tabs of the results.
Back before the 2004 presidential election, there were a number of sites that I would visit almost daily for the most up-to-date information. One of my favorite was www.electoral-vote.com. The concept of the was simple: compile all the poll data from around the nation and try to predict the electoral vote.
Fast forward to the 2006 midterm election. This election is potentially a real turning point for the House, the Senate, and the nation as a whole. With that in mind, I recently rediscovered the site and have been visiting it regularly.
Getting to the point, the predictions are looking interesting to say the least. Although it is by but a shoestring, the Republicans seem to be holding ion to the Senate, 51 to 49. On the other hand, the House is poised to swap party control, with Democrats leading 225 to 208, with two tie races.
Needless to say, I’d prefer it if Republicans maintained total control, but ceding the house will make for some real interesting debates and legislative sessions in the next two years.
I’m not sure how the results will turn out, but I know that I’ll be watching intently on election night.
Normally, I try not to blog about my life or personal events, but I feel that this one deserves it.
Yesterday was my 18th birthday. Yes, the big 18. That’s not really important, though. What is important is that I registered to vote. Come November I’ll finally be able to have a say in the world of politics that I’ve been interested in for years!
That’s right Oregon, another Republican has been added to the ranks of your electorate! Read the rest of this entry »
The Republican National Committee launched a new website and ad campaign, called America Weakly, this past Thursday. The site is a satirical news site, offering many ‘what if’ stories about the coming years if the Democrats were to take Congress in 2006
With such stories as “Just Say ?No?: Dems Celebrate End of Bush Security Measures”, “History! Impeachment Hearings Begin”, and “Promise Kept! Tax Cut Repeal Passes House”, we get a real look into what is a fairly plausible reality.
Although I take it more as humor than anything else, some of the points - and terrible ones at that - which are raised could very well bring problems in the future. Regardless of your political stance, I urge you to take a look at the site and watch the introductory video.
